Production schedule for wafers in July expected to be adjusted downward, with weak prices for high-purity silica [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM reported on July 16:

Silicon Coal

Price: This week, the silicon coal market remained stable. Prices in major regions such as Xinjiang, Ningxia, Gansu, and Shaanxi remained relatively stable. Currently, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 710 yuan/mt, the average price of caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is 1,250 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu is 840 yuan/mt, the average price of pellet coal is 960 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Ningxia is 875 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal is 1,040 yuan/mt.

Supply: Most coal washing plants in various regions are still arranging production plans according to order volumes, with no inventory pressure. However, due to a slight increase in demand recently, the operating rates and production volumes of coal washing plants have also increased slightly.

Demand: Recently, influenced by the upward trend in the silicon metal market and the resumption of production at some silicon plants in the rainy season in south-west China, the demand for raw material silicon coal from silicon plants has increased.

Silicon Metal

Price: This week, the spot transaction price of silicon metal continued to hold up well. Yesterday, the price of oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was in the range of 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, with an intra-day increase of 150 yuan/mt. The main futures contract continued to rise, reaching a high point of 8,880 yuan/mt. It closed at 8,785 yuan/mt yesterday. The futures market rose rapidly, but downstream enterprises found it difficult to accept the price, and the spot-futures price spread made it difficult for futures traders to sell their goods.

Production:

During the week, silicon metal supply decreased in the north and increased in the south. Recently, the price of silicon metal has recovered, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of silicon enterprises in south-west China.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions on July 10 was 551,000 mt, a decrease of 1,000 mt WoW. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 124,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 427,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), an increase of 1,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: The current quotation is in the range of 10,600-11,000 yuan/mt. This week, the domestic DMC price range remained temporarily stable, but the center of gravity of local transactions slightly declined. Recently, the trading volume in the market has contracted, downstream enterprises have not yet exhausted their raw material inventories, and their purchase willingness is not high.

D4: The current quotation is in the range of 11,300-12,000 yuan/mt. This week, the D4 price remained temporarily stable.

107 Silicone Rubber: The current quotation is in the range of 11,000-11,500 yuan/mt. This week, supported by the cost of 107 silicone rubber, the low price slightly increased.

Raw Silicone Rubber: The current quotation is in the range of 12,000-12,400 yuan/mt. This week, the willingness to offer discounts for raw silicone rubber narrowed, and the center of gravity of market transactions slightly shifted upwards.

Silicone Oil: The current quotation is in the range of 12,800-13,200 yuan/mt. This week, the center of gravity of silicone oil transactions remained temporarily stable.

Production:

Recently, the operating rate of monomer enterprises has increased slightly, with the load of monomer enterprises in Shandong slightly improving.

Inventory:

This week, the inventory of monomer enterprises has increased slightly, with downstream procurement sentiment remaining low.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 42-49 yuan/kg, and the quoted price for granular polysilicon was 41-45 yuan/kg. Currently, mainstream polysilicon enterprises have basically issued their quotes, and the market is waiting to see real transactions. Starting this week, there have been several non-representative transactions, with the converted prices mostly concentrated around 42-43 yuan/kg. The market is still waiting for large-scale real transactions from major enterprises. The market transactions during the window period are relatively chaotic, and further observation is needed.

Production

Currently, there are no significant changes in the production schedule for July, and the total polysilicon production is expected to approach the 110,000 mt mark, with significant increases coming from south-west China.

Inventory

This week, polysilicon inventory has seen a significant decline. Since polysilicon enterprises began raising prices at the beginning of the month, downstream cargo pick-up enthusiasm has gradually increased. This week, factories have shipped a large volume of previous orders, leading to a decline in inventory.

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers is 1 yuan/piece, and the price for N-type 210RN wafers is 1.15 yuan/piece. Yesterday, wafer prices remained stable overall. Wafer enterprises intend to raise prices, but some still have concerns and need to observe the actual transaction situation of polysilicon and the price increase of modules in the future.

Production

In July, some major enterprises have further reduced their wafer production schedules, and it is expected that the wafer production schedule will approach around 50GW.

Inventory

Recently, influenced by the increase in polysilicon quotes and wafer prices, downstream cargo pick-up has accelerated, leading to a decrease in wafer inventory.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

Currently, the domestic price for inner-layer sand is 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, the price for middle-layer sand is 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and the price for outer-layer sand is 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. This week, the domestic price for high-purity quartz sand has fallen again. Recently, domestic sand enterprises have offered significant discounts. Against the backdrop of weakening demand, sand prices continue to fall, but with the potential for wafer prices to rise in the future, sand enterprises' willingness to further reduce prices has diminished.

Production

This week, the operation of quartz sand enterprises has remained temporarily stable, with enterprises mainly producing based on demand.

Inventory

The inventory of sand enterprises has increased slightly, with recent demand remaining sluggish.

》View SMM Silicon Product Quotes